China's export growth slows in Oct, trade surplus soars

10th November, 2021

CHINA's export growth slowed in October but beat forecasts, helped by booming global demand ahead of winter holiday seasons, an easing power crunch and an improvement in supply chains that had been badly disrupted by the coronavirus pandemic, reports Reuters.

However, imports missed analysts' expectations, likely pointing to the overall weakness in domestic demand.

Outbound shipments jumped 27.1 per cent in October from a year earlier, slower than September's 28.1 per cent gain. Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast growth would ease to 24.5 per cent.

Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, said the strong exports would help to mitigate the weakening domestic economy, and give the government greater room for manoeuvre on economic policy.

Recent data has pointed to a slowdown in manufacturing. Factory activity shrank for a second month in October, an official survey showed, while growth in industrial output eased to the lowest since March 2020 - the first wave of the pandemic.

However, under heavy government intervention, some supply constraints have started to ease in recent weeks, including a power crunch that had been triggered by a shortage of coal, tougher emission standards and strong industrial demand.

Imports jumped 20.6 per cent in October from a year earlier, accelerating from a 17.6 per cent gain in September but well below expectations for a rise of 25 per cent.

China posted a trade surplus of US$84.54 billion last month, the highest on record. It was also above the poll's forecast of $65.55 billion and September's $66.76 billion surplus.

The world's second largest economy grew 4.9 per cent in the July-September quarter from a year earlier, the weakest reading since the third quarter of last year.

China's trade surplus with the United States was $40.75 billion in October based on customs data, down from $42 billion in September.

For the first ten months of the year, the surplus was $320.67 billion.

Earlier in October, U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai pledged to exclude some Chinese imports from tariffs while pressing Beijing over its failure to keep some promises made in a "Phase 1" trade deal made under the Trump administration.

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