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AS we near the end of the traditional peak season, the spot rate declines over the past 2 weeks are a very clear indicator that the peak season did not really materialize.

In addition, there are dark clouds looming over the horizon for the Transpacific trade, in part linked to US consumer behaviour, according to Sea-Intelligence.

"One element is the change in consumer behaviour," said Alan Murphy, CEO, Sea-Intelligence, adding that "we saw during the pandemic (from services to goods), which is very likely to change back and have a negative impact on import volumes."

Based on statistics from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) the growth is concentrated on goods which are not predominantly moving in containers.

"The largest increase is for recreational goods and services, from 12 per cent of the consumption in 2019 to 17.2 per cent by July 2023. Diving deeper, we see that the largest growth within this category is exhibited by 'Video, Audio, Photographic, Information Processing Equipment, and Media'," Mr Murphy said.

Going a step further, the 'Information Processing Equipment' is genuinely growing fast mid-2023. The main driver of strong growth within this category is clearly seen to be Computer Software and Accessories; and software is mainly not moving in containers, which means that this strong boost to consumer spending does not benefit container shipping lines.

"Another major growth component on goods spending is the overall 'Vehicles' category. New vehicles are indeed growing well, but once again, these are mainly not containerized," Mr Murphy explained.